Museum pop survey - What's the chance of getting an 11%er?

[Ulysses]

Results from my 11th run at crafting five artefacts...

Cold war era - level 257
11% boosts - nil yet again
6% boosts - 13
Dodo artefacts (all five lines score 1%) - nil

 

[Ulysses]

Results from my 12th & 13th run at crafting five artefacts...

Cold war era - level 257
11% boosts - 3+1
6% boosts - 7+10
Dodo artefacts (all five lines score 1%) - nil

11% artefacts included
Pomander watch: 11% looted refund - 1% NTG - 1% gold loot - 1% gold loot - 1% oil loot
Dao sword: 6% ranged siege - 11% bomber hp - 1% generals hp - 1% fighter hp - 1% bomber hp
Monile necklace: 11% looted refund - 6% oil looted - 6% oil looted - 1% gold looted - 1% looted refund
Claymore sword: 6% wall sapper dmg - 1% heavy cav hp - 6% heavy cav hp - 1% guerrilla hp - 11% heli hp

 

[oddin]

Results from my first run at crafting five artifacts x 4 (20 total)...

Atomic age - level 220 (Museum Level 5)
11% boosts - 5 lines
6% boosts - 37 lines
all five lines score 1% - 1 only

 

[Ulysses]

Thanks Wrathchild, I've added your 100 to the updated table below...

 

[oddin]

another run if you still want the results:

Atomic age - level 220 (Museum Level 5)
11% boosts - 5 lines
6% boosts - 32 lines
all five lines score 1% - 3

 

[Ulysses]

Thanks wrathchild_78 ,
I'll update with your numbers below
I think I'll call it there
We've now got more than 1,200 results across four eras
The pattern looks pretty clear to me
No evidence of any difference between eras, no convincing evidence of a change in chances to hit an 11%
Basically it 'aint easy to get one of those 11%s, 1-in-20 chance, but it's possible
I'll revisit this in a couple of months or so, to see if anything changes...

 

[Ulysses]

Thanks for your help guys. Lots more data to add with this latest update.
Thanks heaps to Danron (who's submitted half the data), also to Wrathchild, Shukra & BeerMan.

YOUR CHANCES AT THE MUSEUM
.

Era	EA	Danron	GA	Danron	AA	Shukra & Wrathchild	CWA	Ulysses	Average
	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%
Chance for 11% line	9	3.6%	12	4.8%	23	5.8%	16	4.9%	55	4.9%
Chance for 6% line	80	32.0%	90	36.0%	138	34.5%	123	37.8%	399	35.2%
Chance for 1% line	161	64.4%	148	59.2%	239	59.8%	186	57.2%	671	59.9%
Chance for a dodo artefact (all 5 lines 1%)	4	8%	4	8%	5	6.3%	4	6.2%	16	6.9%
Number of runs (so far)	250		250		400		325		N=1,225

.
We've now got 1,225 crafting runs across four eras (EA=Englightenment Age, GA=Global Age, AA=Atomic Age, CWA=Cold War Age). Unsurprisingly, given it's the result of a random number generator (RNG), there's a lot of results scattering between the eras. Somewhere in the code for the Dom app, a human being (aka the awesome dev team) has entered the values that guide the RNG when it crafts 11%, 6% and 1%.

Looking at our averages, our results predict the Museum gives 4.9% chance for an 11% line, 35.2% chance for a 6% line, 59.9% chance for a 1% line. So my best guess is that the RNG code is the same across all eras, and is probably 5.0% for an 11%, 35% for a 6%, 60% for a 1%.
.
5% chance for an 11% line works out at 1-in-20, so you should be able to craft at least one 11% line every time you craft five artefacts. If you craft more than one 11% line, you're beating the odds. Be happy! If you didn't craft any 11%s with five artefacts, you were just unlucky. You should get one next time.

Your chances of scoring a magical 11% on all three of the top three lines, is 5% x 5% x 5%, which you should be able to do every 1-in-8,000 craftings... To mentally put that in context, your chances of dying in any particular year are 1-in-200 if you smoke ten a day, 1-in-5,000 from influenza, 1-in-8,000 from a car accident in Europe, and 1-in-20,000 from an asteroid strike... 1-in-8,000 isn't easy, but it is happening to somebody, somewhere.
.
Some suggestions to improve Museum crafting: There are two forum posts with clever ideas to improve artefact crafting, possibly by allowing "recrafting" and "reshuffling", with the ability to "lock" the lines that you want to keep. If you like the idea, read the posts and talk to the TinSoldier :
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...ving-artifacts (by Centurion96 )
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...um-change-idea (by Seraph )

 

[Ulysses]

Drum roll, fanfare... TinSoldier has asked his dev team to look into re-roll/shuffle for the Museum...
Thanks Nexon! Now. That. Is. Totally. COOL!!
Link → https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexo...s-feature-requests/630204-improving-artifacts
(Great suggestions Centurion96 and Seraph )

 

[oddin]

I unearthed this topic because i had accumulated 3000 fragments and yesterday decided to spend them. I unfortunately did not write down in detail the results but I do remember several stats.
I got the most artifacts ever having all 5 lines 1%. (more than 10 artifacts were like this)
I got plenty with one 6% and four 1%.
I only got 3 lines in total with 11%.
It was by far, the worst artifact creation session I ever had and this troubles me. Is it like this for others too?
Anyone care to redo a more detailed table to know if the chances for the museum artifacts have changed too? It doesn't seem the above percentages are valid anymore.

 

[Alexey]

I’ve made a lot of crafting and can’t say that I feel any difference. But here’s the question that I was thinking about: l’ve never seen artifacts with three +11% lines, so are the chances for this extremely low or this kind of artifact is simply prohibited by the game to get through a free crafting?

 

[oddin]

no it is not prohibited. The chances are very slim though (less than 1%). It is as others have said, pure lotto!

 

[Borck]

1900, I will try, I always hit the museum by 475. Today I got lucky after 3 2 star fragments during the last weeks I got 4 2 star fragments in one hit today!

 

[Borck]

I didn't read the OP very good I only noted the 11%. Level 196 Atomic 5x 11% Level 234 CWA 5x 11%.
I get more 5x1% though on all accounts, and ofcourse today I got a 3x11% in one artifact!

 

[oddin]

yes that was what I noticed too. An overwhelming increase of all 1s.
Was it any good that 3x11% artifact?

 

[Borck]

No Title

yes that was what I noticed too. An overwhelming increase of all 1s.
Was it any good that 3x11% artifact?

Mwaah, see for yourself, the second one 2x11 en 3x6 I got a few minutes ago

 

[oddin]

The first artifact is mediocre but the second is worth keeping imho.

I've done some more crafting.
Here are the results:

1%: 65%
6%: 28%
11%: 7%

There seems to be an increase for 1% boosts and 11%. The most common artifact by far was having 3x1% and 2x6%. I've seen it so many times...

 

[Ulysses]

Guys, now that the Museum includes War artefacts, I'm gonna re-run our original test, to figure out our chances of scoring:
1%, 6%, 11% regular artefacts
1%, 3%, 6% war artefacts

I'm curious, it feels real hard to score a 6% WW artefact. So I'm gonna run the numbers.
If you wanna help, please save up a heap of fragments. I'll announce again when we go live...
Thanks folks!

 

[oddin]

there is this video that will surely interest you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94Hwslwkij0

 

[Ulysses]

Really useful! Thanks Wrathchild. You're really improving my gameplay right now, buddy.

Can you post that as a new convo? And get Nexon to sticky it?

 

[oddin]

We have the same name mate...How can I refuse to help you?? hahaha

well, stabmasta's channel is really popular and so many people have already seen it. It's been posted on Dominations discord main channel as well.
Nexon will not sticky it cause stabmasta speaks the truth during his 1 hour analysis of the WW hall. They will not like it.