Museum pop survey - What's the chance of getting an 11%er?

[Ulysses]

Ladies & gents,

What's the chance of getting an 11%er at the Museum?
Short answer: about 5% (or 1-in-every-20 artefact lines that you craft)
Long answer: See detailed table on last page for our full analysis

Background:

If anyone's got a little time (and a few fragments sitting around), this survey results from a general feeling among experienced players that the probabilities for the Museum might have changed. To become less 'lucky' since the Museum was launched... Or even that lower eras might enjoy a higher chance of winning the better 11% and 6% artefacts... More details on that here → https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...at-thanks-guys

We're waiting for feedback from the Nexon team... Meanwhile, please help to run a little experiment... If you've got (or can make) 1,900 mysterious fragments over the next few days, please join in.

How to help:

1. Save up your 1,900 fragments

2. Then craft FIVE artefacts
3. Note down a count of the number of 11% and 6% factors that you received across those five artefacts
4. Repeat steps (2) and (3) three more times

5. Once you've done that, you'll have crafted five artefacts four times, so you should have made 20 artefacts in total
6. Each artefact has five factors on it. So across your 20 artefacts you've just run the Museum's 'random number generator' 20x5 times = 100

7. Add up your count of the 11% and 6% factors that you received; they're the percentage you experienced for 11%s and 6%s
8. Please post your count for 11% and 6% factors here
9. And please add your era (industrial, cold war, etc) and level (1-300+) in your post

Thank you:

Power to the forum! If enough of us do this, it's gonna be helpful to figure out our chances of getting 11% and 6% factors in our artefacts. There's a really cool youtube out there, made by a clever Aussie stats guy who figured out the probabilities soon after the Museum was launched. It'll be interesting to see if those chances have changed. Or if there actually is a difference between more and less advanced eras... Thanks for your help guys & girls!

 

[Ulysses]

Here's a link to No Velcro Shoes (the Aussie stats guy)'s totally awesome Museum Guide...
With an intro to what the stats looked like at Museum launch...
→ http://bit.ly/NoVelcroMuseum

 

[Ulysses]

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Results from my first run at crafting five artefacts...

Cold war era - level 257
11% boosts - nil (seriously, not a single line across all five artefacts; equivalent to <4% probability of getting an 11%)
6% boosts - 8 lines across four artefacts (equivalent to 32% probability of getting a 6%)
all five lines score 1% - one in five artefacts

 

[Ulysses]

Results from second run at crafting five artefacts...

Cold war era - level 257
11% boosts - 2 lines across 2 artefacts
6% boosts - 10 lines across 5 artefacts
all five lines score 1% - nil this time

So, a much luckier result 2nd time out...

Combining the two runs together:
11% boosts - 2 lines (equivalent to 4% probability of getting an 11%)
6% boosts - 18 lines (equivalent to 36% probability of getting a 6%)
all five lines score 1% - one in ten artefacts

 

[danron1376]

interesting research. i tried it myself and here are the results (i did 5 sets of 5 by mistake):
level 192 global
11 - 4/125 or 3.2%
6 - 51/125 or 40.8%
1 - 70/125 or 56%

number of 'junk artifacts' (all 1s) - 2/25 = 8%

 

[Ulysses]

Thanks for your results Danron.

Hmm, that's interesting.
Your (global era) probabilities for 11%s and 6%s are surprisingly similar to my (cold war era) ones.
Approximately 1-in-25 chance to craft an 11% line, slightly better than 1-in-3 chance to craft a 6%.

So maybe no difference between eras after all...?

 

[Ulysses]

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Results from third run at crafting five artefacts...

Cold war era - level 257
11% boosts - 1 line across 1 artefact
6% boosts - 12 lines across 5 artefacts
all five lines score 1% - nil again

There was one all 6% that was pretty sweet, attached below... Just not worth holding when a single 11% in the right place would be just as good
The 11% was, of course, right on the bottom of the card, lol

 

[Ulysses]

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Results from fourth run at crafting five artefacts...

Cold war era - level 257
11% boosts - 2
6% boosts - 13
all five lines score 1% - nil again

One of the 11%s, Dao Sword attached below, gives 6%-6%-6%-11%-1%... which actually compares ok with the latest Legendary, Admiral Yi's Helmet, which only gives 6%-6%-6%-11%-11% bonuses.

Combining all four runs together:
11% boosts - 5 lines (equivalent to 5% probability of getting an 11%)
6% boosts - 43 lines (equivalent to 43% probability of getting a 6%)
all five lines score 1% - one in 25 artefacts

 

[Alexey]

So up till now I would say that the chances for GA and CWA are the same, given that the uncertainty for 100 measures is 10% (square root from the number of measurements). If we make at least 1000 measurements, we’ll get a much more accurate estimation of probabilities. Anyway, I’ll try to do my own 100 and post results. The tendency goes to 5% for 11 perk, 45% for 6 perk and 50% for the lowest 1.

 

[Ulysses]

Thanks for your support, Alexey. Yeah, we absolutely need to up the number of tests to provide a more accurate estimate.

I'd stick to the averages for now... so c.4% to craft an 11% line, c.42% chance to craft a 6% line, c.54% chance to craft a 1% line.
And yup, I'd agree, so far it looks like GA and CWA probabilities are more or less the same...

 

[Ulysses]

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Results from fifth run at crafting five artefacts...

Cold war era - level 257
11% boosts - 2
6% boosts - 10
Dodo artefacts (all five lines score 1%) - none this time

The two artefacts with 11% both had the 11%s on the 4th line, with not much else, so I trashed them
(screenshots below, to see if you'd do the same?)

 

[Gargantuar]

Been long time. But this topic definitely made me log in.
Well i didn't do the experiment mentioned above, but have been extremely active with the museum (at level 5) now. On the release day of the museum , i could see selling a 1 star useless item fetched 40 artifacts and 25 blueprints - that got nerfed. The same say i crafted a Wu Zetian Jewellery piece with top line 11% and next line 6% - All resources looted. I was like "holy shit - did Nexon give me 17% bonus for all resources looted from a pvp battle".
Over the next few days i also got another item with 6% 1st line and 1% 2nd line (fighter hitpoints) . Another holy shit moment. Got another weapon item with two lines of fighter hitpoints . Currently my total fighter HP receives a boost of 23% from museum itself.

All in all, yes . In earlier days of museum,it was not only common to get 11% boost items, but items which greatly improved the resourcefulness of one aspect of the game. Lately, not only the 11% is rare, even an item having 2 lines of the same resource boost has become uncommon , if not rare.

 

[Ulysses]

No Title

Results from sixth run at crafting five artefacts...

Cold war era - level 257
11% boosts - 2
6% boosts - 6
Dodo artefacts (all five lines score 1%) - nil again

One of the 11% artefacts was another 4th liner, otherwise with all 1%s, so I trashed it.
The other 11% artefact was actually not too shabby, with 11% all resources looted on the top line, and two 6% gold looted on the 3rd & 4th line.
(Screenshots below)

 

[Ulysses]

Been long time. But this topic definitely made me log in.
Well i didn't do the experiment mentioned above, but have been extremely active with the museum (at level 5) now. On the release day of the museum , i could see selling a 1 star useless item fetched 40 artifacts and 25 blueprints - that got nerfed. The same say i crafted a Wu Zetian Jewellery piece with top line 11% and next line 6% - All resources looted. I was like "holy **** - did Nexon give me 17% bonus for all resources looted from a pvp battle".
Over the next few days i also got another item with 6% 1st line and 1% 2nd line (fighter hitpoints) . Another holy **** moment. Got another weapon item with two lines of fighter hitpoints . Currently my total fighter HP receives a boost of 23% from museum itself.

All in all, yes . In earlier days of museum,it was not only common to get 11% boost items, but items which greatly improved the resourcefulness of one aspect of the game. Lately, not only the 11% is rare, even an item having 2 lines of the same resource boost has become uncommon , if not rare.

Hey thanks Gargantuar! Yeah, I guess Nexon didn't manage the first day nerfing of the value of artefacts for fragments + blueprints too well... I didn't get to use the Museum for several days at the start, so I didn't notice the nerfing... But I can see how it would annoy somebody who did...

From experimenting with crafting over the past 48 hours, I'm not convinced that the probabilities have become worse for the Museum tho... And GA and CWA probabilities look similar too, so the difference between eras doesn't hold up either... Examining some of the artefacts, yup, it's still possible to get an 11% top line, with two 6%s on 3rd and 4th line... for all resources looted and gold looted x2 (the Wu Zetian's Hair Ornament in one of the screenshots posted with my sixth run of crafting above)

I admit, that's rare... But now that I've figured that there's only a 1-in-25 chance of getting an 11% at all, I'm becoming way less picky... Man, when I think of some of the goodies that I threw away in the past couple of months!! Mucho regret...

 

[danron1376]

I have an enlightenment age account also and here are the results (level 124):
11: 4/125 = 3.2%
6: 41/125 = 32.8%
1: 80/125 = 64%

crap artifacts (all 1%) = 2/25 = 8%

the amount of 6% results seems low compared to our other results. I will do another round both for the enlightenment age and global age soon to get more data.

 

[Ulysses]

Thanks again Danron. I've added your EA results to our full table... You're right tho. EA 6% is strangely low compared to our GA & CWA data? But then again, my CWA 11% result seems strangely high?... More data needed... But it's already helping my decision making. I'm throwing away a lot less stuff than I used to!

 

[Ulysses]

No Title

Results from seventh run at crafting five artefacts... OMG crash & burn...

Cold war era - level 257
11% boosts - nil, none, zero, nada
6% boosts - 3, yes, seriously, only 3x 6% across all 25 lines of five artefacts
Dodo artefacts (all five lines score 1%) - two!!

Ok, I don't like Mondays... My seventh run pretty much reverses the trend of good luck that I'd been having with CWA crafting... two dodo artefacts (with all five lines 1%)... and only three 6% lines across all 25 lines of the five artefacts crafted... No 11% lines at all, obviously...

(so if you think you're having bad luck, this is what it looks like, warning: multiple depressing screenshots attached)

 

[Ulysses]

Results from eighth run at crafting five artefacts... welcome to the Monday normal (again)

Cold war era - level 257
11% boosts - nil for the second time in a row
6% boosts - 10
Dodo artefacts (all five lines score 1%) - nil

Emperor Maximilian's Helm (attached below) was ok, at 1%-6%-6%-6%-6%, otherwise everything was useless... All trashed

 

[Quali]

I did all the stats just after it came out. It hasn’t changed. People didn’t have anything to start of with, so got something and think “wow, this is cool”. Once you start to look to improve on that then it gets a lot harder to find better.

I am sat on around 20k artifacts right now, and am going to go on a crafting session to update my original stats. But I am waiting until I have around 40-50k.

 

[Ulysses]

Thanks Quali ! Do you mind sharing your stats when you do that crafting...

It sure does look like the chance of crafting an 11% has fallen, from 6% when NoVelcroShoes did his analysis at Museum launch, to 3-4% now
(see table above).

It's too early to say for sure. We'll keep adding more data.
But it would fit with what players say that they're experiencing...