What's your chance of a high roll in the Casino (sorry, Museum)... Revisited

[Ulysses]

Ever wondered what's your chance of a high roll in the Casino (sorry, I mean the Museum)?

Eight months ago, several of you guys helped to run the stats to figure out what our chances were of winning high value items in the Museum (thanks guys!). Details here → https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...tting-an-11-er

At that time, Dom was giving us a 5% chance to score an '11%' artefact line, 35% chance to score a '6%' line, 60% chance to score a '1%' line.

Nexon have had a busy eight months since, introducing the casino (sorry again, Museum) to world wars... and generously offering us the opportunity to buy (with crowns) a single re-roll.

So I was wondering if our chances have changed any since then...

For my first 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

15 regular (60% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 47 lines (63% chance)
6% - 27 lines (36% chance)
11% - 1 lines (1% chance)
total 75 lines (15 artefacts x 5 lines per)

10 world war (40% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 33 lines (66% chance)
3% - 15 lines (30% chance)
6% - 2 lines (4% chance)
total 50 lines (10 artefacts x 5 lines per)

These are early results from only 25 artefacts, so at this point I wouldn't say it proves anything. But if these stats show consistent, then it would look like getting a good artefact may have become (quite a bit) harder than getting a good regular artefact was back in April.

I've gotta head out now (Christmas gift hunting . But I'll work my way through the rest of 20,000 fragments or so, over the next few days...

 

[Blood]

That’s the way casinos scratch that “museums” work. The longer you play the more the house wins. That’s why I stay out of the Smithsonian those mammoths will take you for everything you have.

 

[sileepuppee]

Ever wondered what's your chance of a high roll in the Casino (sorry, I mean the Museum)?

Eight months ago, several of you guys helped to run the stats to figure out what our chances were of winning high value items in the Museum (thanks guys!). Details here → https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...tting-an-11-er

At that time, Dom was giving us a 5% chance to score an '11%' artefact line, 35% chance to score a '6%' line, 60% chance to score a '1%' line.

Nexon have had a busy eight months since, introducing the casino (sorry again, Museum) to world wars... and generously offering us the opportunity to buy (with crowns) a single re-roll.

So I was wondering if our chances have changed any since then...

For my first 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

15 regular (60% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 47 lines (63% chance)
3% - 27 lines (36% chance)
6% - 1 lines (1% chance)
total 75 lines (15 artefacts x 5 lines per)

10 world war (40% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 33 lines (66% chance)
6% - 15 lines (30% chance)
11% - 2 lines (4% chance)
total 50 lines (10 artefacts x 5 lines per)

These are early results from only 25 artefacts, so at this point I wouldn't say it proves anything. But if these stats show consistent, then it would look like getting a good artefact may have become (quite a bit) harder than getting a good regular artefact was back in April.

I've gotta head out now (Christmas gift hunting . But I'll work my way through the rest of 20,000 fragments or so, over the next few days...

You numbers are switched around as 6% is the max for ww artifacts. I think the more important factor is that whether the stat from that 6% or 11% is actually one that is worth keeping and that lowers the chances even more that it'll be kept. I feel like I get a decent or amount of items with 11% even on the first line but it's always trash. Strictly on your numbers seems about right though I've never been patient enough to horde that many fragments I think the most I had was 3k before I gambled and lost of course.

 

[Ulysses]

For my second 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

9 regular (36% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 23 lines (51% chance)
6% - 22 lines (49% chance)
11% - 0 lines (0% chance)
total 45 lines (9 artefacts x 5 lines per)

16 world war (64% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 60 lines (75% chance)
3% - 19 lines (24% chance)
6% - 1 line (1% chance)
total 80 lines (16 artefacts x 5 lines per)

Second run is interesting... The chance to get a middle bonus on a regular artefact (ie. +6%) is really quite high.

But, once again, the chance of getting a high bonus is much, much lower than it used to be in April.
Doesn't prove anything yet. Let's keep running the numbers...

 

[Ulysses]

For my third 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

13 regular (52% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 35 lines (54% chance)
6% - 23 lines (35% chance)
11% - 7 lines (11% chance)
total 65 lines (13 artefacts x 5 lines per)

12 world war (48% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 39 lines (65% chance)
3% - 19 lines (32% chance)
6% - 2 line (3% chance)
total 60 lines (12 artefacts x 5 lines per)

Big improvement in my luck to hit 11% this run... might actually keep one of these, lol... a one off? or reversion to averages?

 

[Ulysses]

Thanks Sileepuppee! Good catch. I've correct my labelling.
Yeah, you're right. Whether you get a high bonus or a low one, doesn't matter much if it's for x% more food collection.
I didn't have time to keep data on all the different factors affected.
But I reckon it's worth keeping players updated on their current chances in the Casino, no?
I'll also share stats on anything I keep... to give a picture on what was actually worth having... Nothing so far...

 

[Ulysses]

For my fourth 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

16 regular (64% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 48 lines (60% chance)
6% - 27 lines (34% chance)
11% - 5 lines (6% chance)
total 80 lines (16 artefacts x 5 lines per)

9 world war (36% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 26 lines (58% chance)
3% - 15 lines (33% chance)
6% - 4 lines (9% chance)
total 45 lines (9 artefacts x 5 lines per)

Not a bad fourth run... sadly nothing worth keeping tho...

 

[Ulysses]

For my fifth 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

12 regular (48% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 38 lines (63% chance)
6% - 21 lines (35% chance)
11% - 1 line (2% chance)
total 60 lines (12 artefacts x 5 lines per)

13 world war (52% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 40 lines (62% chance)
3% - 23 lines (35% chance)
6% - 2 lines (3% chance)
total 65 lines (13 artefacts x 5 lines per)

Back to lower chances of those elusive high impact artefacts...

 

[Ulysses]

For my sixth 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

14 regular (56% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 43 lines (61% chance)
6% - 25 lines (36% chance)
11% - 2 lines (3% chance)
total 70 lines (14 artefacts x 5 lines per)

11 world war (44% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 33 lines (60% chance)
3% - 21 lines (38% chance)
6% - 1 line (2% chance)
total 55 lines (11 artefacts x 5 lines per)

I'll sum it all up for the super-averages, once I've burned through the full 20,000 fragments... 12,000 left to go...

 

[Ulysses]

For my seventh 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

14 regular (56% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 42 lines (60% chance)
6% - 26 lines (37% chance)
11% - 2 lines (3% chance)
total 70 lines (14 artefacts x 5 lines per)

11 world war (44% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 35 lines (64% chance)
3% - 16 lines (29% chance)
6% - 4 lines (7% chance)
total 55 lines (11 artefacts x 5 lines per)


For my eighth 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

16 regular (64% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 46 lines (58% chance)
6% - 31 lines (39% chance)
11% - 3 lines (4% chance)
total 80 lines (16 artefacts x 5 lines per)

9 world war (36% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 31 lines (69% chance)
3% - 13 lines (29% chance)
6% - 1 lines (2% chance)
total 45 lines (9 artefacts x 5 lines per)


For my ninth 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

12 regular (48% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 40 lines (67% chance)
6% - 15 lines (25% chance)
11% - 5 lines (8% chance)
total 60 lines (12 artefacts x 5 lines per)

13 world war (52% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 45 lines (69% chance)
3% - 20 lines (31% chance)
6% - 0 lines (0% chance)
total 65 lines (13 artefacts x 5 lines per)

 

[Ulysses]

10th x 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

11 regular (44% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 31 lines (56% chance)
6% - 21 lines (38% chance)
11% - 3 lines (5% chance)
total 55 lines (11 artefacts x 5 lines per)

14 world war (56% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 45 lines (64% chance)
3% - 20 lines (29% chance)
6% - 5 lines (7% chance)
total 70 lines (14 artefacts x 5 lines per)


11th x 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

22 regular (88% chance for regular!!) artefacts
1% - 74 lines (67% chance)
6% - 32 lines (29% chance)
11% - 4 lines (4% chance)
total 110 lines (22 artefacts x 5 lines per)

3 world war (12% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 6 lines (40% chance)
3% - 8 lines (53% chance)
6% - 1 line (7% chance)
total 15 lines (3 artefacts x 5 lines per)

kind of a weird one... surprisingly light on ww artefacts this round...


12th x 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

10 regular (40% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 37 lines (74% chance)
6% - 12 lines (24% chance)
11% - 1 line (2% chance)
total 50 lines (10 artefacts x 5 lines per)

15 world war (60% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 49 lines (65% chance)
3% - 23 lines (31% chance)
6% - 3 lines (4% chance)
total 75 lines (15 artefacts x 5 lines per)


13th x 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

17 regular (68% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 52 lines (61% chance)
6% - 32 lines (38% chance)
11% - 1 line (1% chance)
total 85 lines (17 artefacts x 5 lines per)

8 world war (32% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 25 lines (63% chance)
3% - 11 lines (28% chance)
6% - 4 lines (10% chance)
total 40 lines (8 artefacts x 5 lines per)


14th x 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

14 regular (56% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 43 lines (61% chance)
6% - 21 lines (30% chance)
11% - 6 line (9% chance)
total 70 lines (14 artefacts x 5 lines per)

11 world war (44% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 35 lines (64% chance)
3% - 18 lines (33% chance)
6% - 2 lines (4% chance)
total 55 lines (11 artefacts x 5 lines per)

That's it for today... I'll try to make another six more runs over the next few days, to get to 20 x 125 rolls... then I'll calculate all of the averages for you...

 

[kilgore_trout]

You guys keep saying casino like it's a bad thing. People should be allowed to spend their money the way they want to

 

[Blood]

Big difference. You have to drive to a casino and it is closely regulated by the government. This is not regulated. They can have any drop rate they wish and can manipulate it from second to second depending on your spending habits. It is ripe for abuse. They are basically taking advantage of addicts and fools. Plus it’s on your phone which is constantly with you constantly alerting you to play. I’m a capitalist but only properly regulated capitalism benefits the populous. This is not regulated and is exploitive. Studies show the addiction part of your brain has a higher activation rate from this type of video game manipulation then nicotine.

 

[kilgore_trout]

The point I was making is that people are coughing out casino like it's a bad thing. Ask nexon to post some odds instead of griping like a puritan. Again, people should have the right to spend their money on what chose without someone shaming them by calling them a fool.

 

[Blood]

Casinos are a bad thing. It’s a temporary high at a huge financial cost but at least they are regulated. Nexon can lie about the odds and change them at any time they wish. They don’t even have to give everyone the same odds. I’m not a Puritan or even a Christian. I’m just not stupid and I don’t like manipulation. If your defending them you are a fool. Instead of feeling shame think about what I said and look up the psychological studies. I swear people on here act like this is real and not a program. They don’t seem to understand everything that happens in game is a number that was entered by a person who intended that number to do something.

 

[Ulysses]

Sorry guys, got distracted by doing the Christmas thang...


15th x 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

12 regular (48% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 32 lines (53% chance)
6% - 28 lines (47% chance)
11% - 0 lines (0% chance)
total 60 lines (12 artefacts x 5 lines per)

13 world war (52% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 43 lines (66% chance)
3% - 21 lines (32% chance)
6% - 1 line (2% chance)
total 65 lines (13 artefacts x 5 lines per)


16th x 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

12 regular (48% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 36 lines (60% chance)
6% - 20 lines (33% chance)
11% - 4 lines (6% chance)
total 60 lines (12 artefacts x 5 lines per)

13 world war (52% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 34 lines (52% chance)
3% - 25 lines (38% chance)
6% - 6 line (9% chance)
total 65 lines (13 artefacts x 5 lines per)


17th x 125 rolls (25 artefacts)

12 regular (48% chance for regular) artefacts
1% - 30 lines (50% chance)
6% - 28 lines (47% chance)
11% - 2 lines (3% chance)
total 60 lines (12 artefacts x 5 lines per)

13 world war (52% chance for WW) artefacts
1% - 26 lines (40% chance)
3% - 34 lines (52% chance)
6% - 65line (8% chance)
total 65 lines (13 artefacts x 5 lines per)