'Chance of...' percentage way off

[NotCoveredIn]

As an example, the recent kill 30 fur balls, I mean bunnies, challenge resulted in ONE return of Fur in thirty - it is supposed to be one in five. A little better for bears, one in four.

Is this a known bug? I haven't seen mention of it anywhere.

 

[bigcity]

More people have reported this, I too have 50% change, well no change that I get 50% trade goods, more like 5%

 

[NotCoveredIn]

Well it is getting pretty ridiculous, I am having to use my dock bonus to help build my fur count now. I am lucky if I get 3 or 4 furs from 20+ foxes and rabbits. Plus bears only give me furs 1 out of 3 or 4 times. I sent an in-game support message, but no response in 3 days...

 

[Damascus]

Im undecided as to whether there is an issue or not. At times I think it just doesn't seem like the percentage of chances are correct but then yesterday I hunted 4 rabbits and got 6 furs, two yielding the furs. Just now I hunted three rabbits and got 1 fur.

It would mmake since that you gain items from hunting randomly; some times in large amounts and other times very infrequently. If I flip a quarter 10 times, your chances of getting tails five times is 50% but that doesn't mean you will land tails 50% of the time. As you flip the quarter over and over again, you will notice the effect of the law of averages in this case, meaning over long periods of time, I should land tails at roughly a 50% rate.