I have noticed this too. Replays are not complete recordings of a battle. Only the time and place of troop deployments and rallies are recorded. Then the game engine is used to recreate where the troops would have gone, what they would have destroyed, and how the defenses would have reacted. There is a little randomness in the engine, so replays will not be completely faithful.
A major factor affecting the accuracy is incorrect stats. If a bonus is not taken into account for the replay, the attacking troops won't do as much damage as they did during the actual attack. This often happens after an update, and the devs can fix it fairly quickly. Another factor is the hardware you are using versus the hardware of the attacker. If your tablet/phone is slower, the troops will take a fraction of a second longer to make a decision or react to an attack, and over the course of a battle it might make a significant difference.
My feeling is that replays have gotten worse recently, but I haven't seen widespread reports, so it is probably just me.