​A Statistical Analysis of Looting: Crunching the numbers from 125 raids

[icebergler]

I hear alot of talk about where the best farming/looting is, so I decided to start keeping track in order to make a decision based on empirical evidence. I'm hoping this will inspire others to track farming/looting from other metal ranges and post them here.

Background: Gunpowder age between 600-800 medals (copper 1)

Methods: Track the gold and food available across 5 separate sets of 25 raids without attacking any of them.

Results: Average Total resources per raid opportunity = 36,270 (+- 920 with a 95% CI)
Average Total gold per raid opportunity = 17,560
Average Total food per raid opportunity = 18,710
Average gold to food ratio per raid opportunity = .938 (94%)
Number of raids where total gold/food > 100k = 7
Odds of getting a village with > 100k = 1/17.8 (5.6%)
Note on variance: The Standard deviation for total resources was ~4,000

Big take away: The average ratio of gold to food is actual much closer to 1/1 then you would think. This is because the ratio of Gold to Food is more skewed in higher resource raid opportunities.

What metal range would you like me to look at next?

 

[Whatwhat]

I actually looked at my 30 raids from yesterday. Totals were 4.2 million hold 3.9 million food. Not bad aye?

 

[icebergler]

What medal range were you in at the time? I finally got back down under 300 and man is there alot of loot down here. I had forgotten. I did so many raids in the 600-800 range for the stats that I am loving it down here. It will be interesting to see what the average loot is down here. Its interesting though how loot numbers actually have low variance, meaning that your odds of getting similar loot every 10 raids is really high. ---Also I just changed my poll to increase the average amount people got in the 200-400 range.

 

[Meher]

Icebergler,

Excellent post, thanks for the effort.

I'm in the 800-1000 range. Tell me how I can help you. What are exactly the numbers you need ?

Is it really good under the 300 medals ? Average gold and food per raid ?

I'm quite sure that there will be people not in the 200-400 range that will vote in your poll. I think the results won't be any good...

 

[Joe Bamboo Wissmann]

I have been climbing from 1000-1600 medals and everyone i see is about 60k each, some have 300k/300k id say 1/15

 

[icebergler]

I think your right Meher, I got rid of the poll. So far under 300 is really good for me. I haven't started tracking the loot yet though. If you can track the loot the same way I did in my first post for the 800-1000 range that would be awsome. You only really need to do about 30 raid observations to have your results be statistically significant. Just track the total loot from each raid opportunity and divide by number of raid opportunity's you looked at. Also track how many of the 30 had loot over 100k since that is a number alot of people look for when decided if to attack. Then post your results here. Thanks Meher!

 

[mwedwards]

One issue with the methodology here: time of day seems to matter. 6:00am EDT there appear to be more resources available, possibly owing to player inactivity and/or simple accumulation of resources in farms, caravans & roads.

 

[The Great One]

I'm medieval age half done with lvl 7 walls. I stay 200-300 medal range - commonly find bases with 80-100k resources (80k gold AND food, not combined) and don't lose more than one or two infantryman per raid. So in my opinion it's good but I haven't tried out higher levels.

 

[The Great One]

I've noticed that as well. When I play in the afternoon I get much better results than in the morning.