Thanks
Quali ,
I guess what I want to be sure of is whether the 'observed mean' values that NoVelcroShoes quoted are what you actually found for
your sample of N=985, at Museum launch, ie.
- 11% artefact lines came up 6% of the time
- 6% artefact lines came up 33% of the time
- 1% artefact lines came up 61% of the time
Obviously if you only found 11%s five percent of the time, that's very different to what NoVelco quoted?
The 'observed mean' values that Danron & I are finding now, in
our smaller but growing sample of N=450, ie.
-
11% artefact lines are coming up 3.2%-4.5% (range dependent on era)
- 6% artefact lines are coming up 32.8%-40.8%
- 1% artefact lines are coming up 56%-64%
Simple observation suggests that there's no meaningful difference between the 1% and 6% observations that you made at Museum launch, and the ones that Danron & I are seeing now. Your results are at our lower end for 6%s, but both are within our ranges.
That your observed mean for 11% at Museum launch is outside, quite a lot higher than, the range that Danron & I are experiencing now is interesting. Absolutely, I agree that it's too early to say for sure whether anything has changed, but once observations get into the 1,000s it starts to become significant. It would be enough to approve a new medicine, for example...
6% of 1,000 tests is 60. So when you did it, your guys created approximately 60x 11% lines in their crafting.
3-4.5% of 1,000 tests is 30-45. So, at our current run rate, you'd expect Danron & me to score 11%s only 30-45x by the time we get to 1,000 runs.
I'd need to drop all the numbers into an SPSS app, which I can't do right now, but I can do in a couple of weeks, to calculate the actual confidence intervals. But I'm pretty sure 1,000 runs should be enough to show if the mean has shifted, within 95% confidence (forgive the boring stats, guys). Of course, only Nexon know for sure, if they modified the probabilities to get an 11%... We do know, with certainty, that Nexon reduced the sell back value of artefacts.
I kinda like the Museum. It's grown on me. It's powerful if you work it, and there are clever ways to improve it. Like
Seraph and @Centurion 's ideas below. The numbers that Danron & I are running now, and that you run too when you run them, will be helpful to establish current probabilities... It's already changed the way that I play... Knowing I can only score an 11% every 1-in-25, I keep a lot more of them now!
Ully
.
| Era | Enlightenment | Global | Cold War | Original average at Museum launch* |
| | | | | |
| Chance for 11% line | 3.2% (4 lines) | 3.2% (4 lines) | 4.5% (9 lines) | 6% |
| Chance for 6% line | 32.8% (41 lines) | 40.8% (51 lines) | 36.0% (72 lines) | 33% |
| Chance for 1% line | 64% (80 lines) | 56% (70 lines) | 59.5% (119 lines) | 61% |
| | | | | |
| Chance for a dodo artefact (all lines 1%) | 8.0% (2 artefacts) | 8.0% (2 artefacts) | 7.5% (3 artefacts) | N/A |
| | | | | |
| Number of runs (so far) | N=125 | N=125 | N=200 | N=985 |
.
Suggestions to improve Museum crafting: There are two current
forum posts with clever suggestions to improve artefact crafting, possibly by allowing "
recrafting" and "
reshuffling", with the ability to "
lock" the lines that you want to keep. If you like the idea, read the posts and talk to the
TinSoldier :
→
https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...ving-artifacts (by
Centurion96 )
→
https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...um-change-idea (by
Seraph )
