NTG odds lower than claimed

[rcatch]

Since I am not getting satisfactory replies from customer service so I will post my situation here. Nexon claims the odds of getting NTG after a 5 star win is 90%. I fully understand the actual odds I am getting will fructuate. But what’s bothering me is that for a few months my odds would never even close to 90%. We do war back to back so every other day I will attack for NTG. and every other day I get frustrated. Think about it, if it’s really 90% over a long term why would I complain?

So to prove my point, I will do a count of getting NTG odds after all 5 star wins from my attack log every day. Let’s see what the odds will be from now on. My suspection is that there is definitely something wrong with the odds generator. And it may very well be device type dependent.

So here is today’s odds: 18 out of 25=72%

 

[Quovatis]

Where did they claim it is 90%? There is also university research that alters the odds of some NTGs, so if you have done any of that research, it's hard to factor in.

 

[LordAnubis]

And then there is montezuma in uni granting a random third ntg.

 

[Manifesto]

Are you surprised that NTGs are so hard to come by? It's in Nexon's interest to make them hard to come by.
All trade goods or NTGs used to be achieved in good supply many, many months ago. Since then, and Nexon will deny this of course, the randomness of the goods have worked in Nexon's favour.
It's no surprise that 2 or 3 trees used to be able to fill my earlier storehouse capacity. Now I'm lucky if I get 6 cider from 8 trees. Same with metal or fur or leather.
Marco Polo could've been the perfect NTG solution (offered by Nexon) to this problem (created by Nexon), but sadly not.

 

[rcatch]

90% odds is from customer service. So uni research should only affects the specific type of NTG but not the odds of getting NTG or not. Same applies to the 3rd random NTG. I do remember the odds is like 90% a few months ago. But after that it’s never been the same. So if Nexon has changed something, please admit it. The gamers are not dumb, I can prpbably do a better design to make the replay “real”.

 

[rcatch]

The worse cases I can remember is only 1 NTG out of the last 5 wins. And yesterday 3 consecutive wins to get lumbers resulted nothing. This kind of situation should not happen so often with 90% odds. You lower the odds for what? To make me attack dead bases more? Besides wasting more of my time what else do anyone benefits?

 

[rcatch]

There are members in my alliance never had such issues. So I believe it could be the device type odds generator bug or something along that line. I am using ipad pro but my last regular ipad was the same.

 

[rcatch]

90% is from CS. Uni research shouldn’t matter neither does 3rd NTG as they only affect the odds after getting NTG.

 

[Bedlam]

Moctezuma my friend, totally worth the research time

 

[Bootney Lee Fonsworth]

Meh. Nothing in this game that depends on the blessing of RNGESUS works as they claim. How often do you go 6/8 or 7/8 on fruit trees? At 60% chance it seems like that would happen more often than going 1/8 or 2/8, but it doesn't.

5 star victories, fruit trees, mines should yield at least 1 thing that they offer then RNG can be applied to any multiples. I can live with the furs and leather since animals come around much more often and are far less vital in mid to late game.

 

[rcatch]

Got enough new attacks, 24 out of 28=86%. Days like this would be fine. Days better than this is rare.

 

[T4TiFooS]

currently I can NOT get any NTG in 3-4* a battle ... means chance diminished under 10% ... and in 5* a battle rarely can have chance to get NTG it should be under 50%

I believe something happen with them in two three days ago !

 

[rcatch]

21 out of 27=78%. Something happened again in the last few attacks when I was only looking for lumber. Out of the last 7 attacks, only 3 had lumber. Similar thing happened last a few days ago if you look at my earlier post. Things like this happen so often that makes you wonder where is 90% come into play. If it’s really 90% what’s the odds of such thing happens? There is definitely something wrong with the odds generator!

 

[rcatch]

Another NTG day got 18 out of 28 = 64%. So far I’ve accumulated 81/108=75%. If that’s not convincing enough I will continue. I am confident this is the normal odds I am getting everyday.

 

[IShrugged]

You can flip a coin a bunch of times and come up tails. Randomness is funny that way, it's random. Sometimes I get nothing for a good stretch but then I'll get great stuff in a run too. It's hard to judge randomness over a short/mid range timeframe. I have gobs of gold and food stored from excess cider and medal, and keep a full suite of blessings active most every day. I will admit though that I try and logon at least every few hours (plenty of idle time here) to hunt/mine/pick as much as the game offers.

 

[rcatch]

Got enough attacks to report. 17/24=71%

 

[rcatch]

You can flip a coin a bunch of times and come up tails. Randomness is funny that way, it's random. Sometimes I get nothing for a good stretch but then I'll get great stuff in a run too. It's hard to judge randomness over a short/mid range timeframe. I have gobs of gold and food stored from excess cider and medal, and keep a full suite of blessings active most every day. I will admit though that I try and logon at least every few hours (plenty of idle time here) to hunt/mine/pick as much as the game offers.

Random with set odds is random in any period of time. But it has to gradually reach the odds while we get more and more trials. So the question is what the probability is if we get 75% out of over 100 trial. I can’t get the formula but I am sure it’s not much. And if my past much longer experience confirms the similar odds what conclusion we should get? I will keep getting more odds and let’s reach 1000 trials. I am sure the odds at that time will tell a much convincing story if it goes below say 85%.

 

[Peaced Off]

Great thread!!!
i also believe it’s no where near 90%. I’ve got level 6 coalitions and have completed Moctezuma and we war non stop but still, smashing 3 5* victories in a row for no NTG really sucks!!!

 

[rcatch]

24/32=75%. Running total so far 122/164=74%

 

[rcatch]

Random function most likely is not implemented by Nexon but a system call. So in my case this function is provided by IOS. So nexon doesn’t really have the power to find out if this function is not working properly, under certain circumstances, or not calling it the correct way. But I would suggest nexon to talk to apple developer support and maybe this issue has been reported by others as well.