NTG odds lower than claimed

[rcatch]

Since I am not getting satisfactory replies from customer service so I will post my situation here. Nexon claims the odds of getting NTG after a 5 star win is 90%. I fully understand the actual odds I am getting will fructuate. But what’s bothering me is that for a few months my odds would never even close to 90%. We do war back to back so every other day I will attack for NTG. and every other day I get frustrated. Think about it, if it’s really 90% over a long term why would I complain?

So to prove my point, I will do a count of getting NTG odds after all 5 star wins from my attack log every day. Let’s see what the odds will be from now on. My suspection is that there is definitely something wrong with the odds generator. And it may very well be device type dependent.

So here is today’s odds: 18 out of 25=72%

 

[Manifesto]

Wouldn't it be nice if they added NTGs to the war loot? Say, 33% return of all the NTGs you spent on the war if you win and 10% return if you lose.
Not a lot but it gives you a head start for your next war.

 

[rcatch]

18/29=62%, running total 140/193=73%

 

[rcatch]

16/29=55%, one of the most terrible odds. Running total 156/222=70%. I challenge anyone this is supposed to be the odds you get from 90%

 

[yemen]

I have never seen anywhere in game that mentions 90%. CS responses are basically nonsense, I don't think anyone has done a running percent tally, but I would guess 90% (completely made up) of them are either obviously wrong, not on topic, or not directly verifiable as wrong, but against the intuitions of most players of the game.

NTG chances at 90% is obviously not true. The 70% you are claiming seems about right, although it definitely varies between 3,4 and 5 star victories.

 

[rcatch]

I have never seen anywhere in game that mentions 90%. CS responses are basically nonsense, I don't think anyone has done a running percent tally, but I would guess 90% (completely made up) of them are either obviously wrong, not on topic, or not directly verifiable as wrong, but against the intuitions of most players of the game.

NTG chances at 90% is obviously not true. The 70% you are claiming seems about right, although it definitely varies between 3,4 and 5 star victories.

90% is what I get from 2 different customer service personnel. You are right the odds is lower for 4 star and even lower for 3.

 

[rcatch]

The thing is we only get small number of gamers complaints while the rest is obviously satisfied with their around 90% odds. But the small number of us doesn’t mean we are just being unlucky by the odds distribution but there is something wrong with the odds. This is what I am trying to prove here.

 

[alexandria]

I personally find 90% too high of a drop rate for NTG. I think it's fine where it is.

TinSoldier Are you able to verify the chance of drop from developers for National trade goods?

 

[cclaerbo]

Tinsoldier said in the twitch video your odds are 90% with a 5* victory. And then for a few ntgs there is uni research which boosts that chance 10% which should mean if you get 5 stars you’ll be rewarded that ntg 100% of the time. That would be the best test to see if 90% is accurate. I’m working on the one in devinci now. The thing with odds is you never know what’s going to come up. I understand the point made about as you get more and more trails you should approach the true odds. If your versed in statistics at all though you know you cannot even make an accurate judgement until you have 1000 minimum trails in your data set. So keep tracking until you get to 1000 minimum you can’t make a great judgement. Also it’s like a roulette wheel or a coin flip the odds are the same every spin or flip they don’t increase after negative results. You might have 50 flips in a row that are heads but it doesn’t increase the chance tails will come up on the 51st flip.

 

[Manifesto]

That doesn't make sense. If it's only a small number getting the low odds, doesn't that justify the ''odds''?
By your own reasoning it might be as high as 90% of gamers who ARE getting the higher odds. Isn't that what this is all about?

 

[rcatch]

Tinsoldier said in the twitch video your odds are 90% with a 5* victory. And then for a few ntgs there is uni research which boosts that chance 10% which should mean if you get 5 stars you’ll be rewarded that ntg 100% of the time. That would be the best test to see if 90% is accurate. I’m working on the one in devinci now. The thing with odds is you never know what’s going to come up. I understand the point made about as you get more and more trails you should approach the true odds. If your versed in statistics at all though you know you cannot even make an accurate judgement until you have 1000 minimum trails in your data set. So keep tracking until you get to 1000 minimum you can’t make a great judgement. Also it’s like a roulette wheel or a coin flip the odds are the same every spin or flip they don’t increase after negative results. You might have 50 flips in a row that are heads but it doesn’t increase the chance tails will come up on the 51st flip.

No matter how distributed the odds is, it doesn’t make sense that someone always around 90% for the life of this game and someone else always way lower than that. The odds is not centrally controlled by the game server but rather individual playing devices you and I have.

 

[rcatch]

19/21=90%, running total 175/243=72%

 

[T4TiFooS]

Well, it is not only about NTG !
most of the stuffs and parameters are hidden and we don't know nothing about them !
for exp:
-whats the exact damage per shot for each troop/building ? we only know about their damage per SECOND which is not exact damage ! and also we don't know about their rate of the fire ! so we can't calculate the exact damage at all ! some of them fires earlier than 1 sec and some later ! we only know about the exact damage of Silo !
there are many examples ...
I think they hide these settings due to the system has issue with these and goes wrong and they can't fix it ... and they did it because of preventing questioning about these settings and odds !

 

[rcatch]

Well well well, look what we got! 22/22=100%. Came in the 1st time ever in more than a few months, but when I wasn’t looking for NTG This exercise has another unexpected effect that I was no longer wishing for NTG so eagerly after each win because low odds will halp to prove my point Running total 197/265=74%

 

[rcatch]

18/21=86%, running total 215/286=75%

 

[rcatch]

16/22= 73%, 231/308=75%

 

[Dvicious]

75% sounds about right from my experience. definite lower than 90%. thanks for collecting the data, it makes a much stronger case than our collective terrible and biased memories.

 

[rcatch]

75% sounds about right from my experience. definite lower than 90%. thanks for collecting the data, it makes a much stronger case than our collective terrible and biased memories.

If everyone got about the same in the long run, nexon has a easy job to fix. But the issue is a lot of gamers never had odds this low in their lifetime of this game.

 

[rcatch]

30/35=86%; 261/343=76%

 

[cclaerbo]

I’m getting closer to having the uni research done for marble. Maybe that will help show if the 90 percent number they claim is correct or not

 

[rcatch]

18/19=95%, 279/362=77%