Fruit tree and gold mine --> NOT 60%

[houser]

I have doing some "statistic" check on long term, the fruit tree and gold mine DID NOT give 60%... Possible the 60% apply to the total (if you have 8 fruit trees, you will have an average of 6 to 8 cider in TOTAL if you collect all of them. Same thing with metal the % of time I receive 0 from 3 gold mine is "very" high).
Possible Nexon have reduce the %, for us to use crown to "buy" the missing cider or metal.
My average are 6 to 8 ciders with 8 fruit tree (and sometime can go up to 10-12, but very exceptional to have more than 12), on long term.

 

[Tankmage1]

They seems alright with me, maybe you got some bad luck or something. I usually to get 5*(2~3) cider out of 8 trees and 2*(4~5) metal out of 3 mines.

 

[houser]

I have the same before, (before global age, and mostly atomic age), look like more you get up in age, less % is high.

 

[ReekyBullet]

The statistic applies to each individual source of trade goods. So if you have a 60% chance for cider, each tree also has a 40% chance to not get any. Based off of this is certainly possible to get a bad run of collection as well as a good run.
That being said I'm in atomic age and I mostly don't have issues with getting items from the mines and trees. Maybe you are unlucky as tankmage said.

 

[Hyhyhy]

Collect fruits from trees 100 times, calculate % and then draw conclusions. Do the same for the mines. Statistically, you should get correct number of 60% if you do it 100 times.

 

[Manifesto]

When they first started, trees and mines used to give approx 15-20 when there was only 4 trees and 2 mines, then Nexon nerfed them.
About 6 months after they nerfed them we got the option to purchase more trees and mines and guess what, we got the returns we used to!
These were nerfed a while ago, again, and now we have Moctezuma to give us the chance for a bigger return.
Interesting, yes?

 

[gmwtcqgd]

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[Green Bird]

I do not think it works like this. If this were the case, every time you collect from your 8 trees or 3 mines you would hit same 60pc probability. This is clearly not the case.

Rather, it is a 60pc probability per tree or per mine to come up with the goods. A bit of a lottery, actually.

What is interesting also is how quantities of goods are determined.

 

[Festivus]

I believe that OP is correct. Each individual chance at TG should be mutually exclusive - every time you "pick" a fruit tree, you have a 60% chance of getting a good. But mine most definitely do not work out that way. If I had to guess, I'd say my average is closer to 30-40% or so. I do not believe that the chance is actually 60%. Over the long run it should be very close to that average, but I do not believe it is anywhere near that.