NTG odds lower than claimed

[rcatch]

Since I am not getting satisfactory replies from customer service so I will post my situation here. Nexon claims the odds of getting NTG after a 5 star win is 90%. I fully understand the actual odds I am getting will fructuate. But what’s bothering me is that for a few months my odds would never even close to 90%. We do war back to back so every other day I will attack for NTG. and every other day I get frustrated. Think about it, if it’s really 90% over a long term why would I complain?

So to prove my point, I will do a count of getting NTG odds after all 5 star wins from my attack log every day. Let’s see what the odds will be from now on. My suspection is that there is definitely something wrong with the odds generator. And it may very well be device type dependent.

So here is today’s odds: 18 out of 25=72%

 

[rcatch]

I’m getting closer to having the uni research done for marble. Maybe that will help show if the 90 percent number they claim is correct or not

This will only increase the odds you see marble opponent, not the odds once you 5 star

 

[pckrn]

wow you weren't kidding when you said you go for NTG's. that's a lot of 5 star battles in a day

i found this interesting and looked through all my attack and defense log for 5 star battles but found only 1 in defense log and 6 in attack log. they all produced NTG's but thats only 7 cases

anyway, the uni research says 'increases chances of finding marble from multiplayer victories', so it increases the odds for 3, 4, and 5 star victories.

if it were to increase the odds to find Romans, that wouldn't be useful at all, and it wouldn't say victories, it would say matches, and it would also probably say Romans, not marble

 

[Dvicious]

haha I would agree that an increase odds of roman matchup would be an aweful 'perk'. That said, i would invest in a uni perk to decrease odds of a japanese matchup. lol.

 

[cclaerbo]

We all know you never get matched with a certain nation when that’s the one you need for a coalition that’s about a 90% chance they won’t match you up with that nation

 

[rcatch]

36/40=90%, 315/402=78%

 

[rcatch]

26/29=90%, 341/431=79%

 

[Kellett]

I’ve got a few accounts. The one on the ipad gives a high rate of NTG for 5 star victories and I’m happy with it, The two on the androids give very low rate rates- about 1 five star victory in every 8 gives NTG’s. It is so bad I left my alliance because it took too long and was too difficult to get the NTG’s for coalitions to join in the wars. Numerous requests to nexon support had them brushing me off and saying I’m still getting the goods, it might be a visual bug, the NTGs are random, etc. No interest in how low the rate was. Sadly, I’ve given up on the 2 accounts where the NTGs don’t give properly and concentrate on the ipad account where NTGs still appear normally.

The 2 accounts with the NTG bug or problem weren’t always like that. Up until this year, they were normal and gave high rates of NTG as well. The bug started a few months ago.

 

[rcatch]

29/32=91%, 370/463=80%

 

[rcatch]

I’ve got a few accounts. The one on the ipad gives a high rate of NTG for 5 star victories and I’m happy with it, The two on the androids give very low rate rates- about 1 five star victory in every 8 gives NTG’s. It is so bad I left my alliance because it took too long and was too difficult to get the NTG’s for coalitions to join in the wars. Numerous requests to nexon support had them brushing me off and saying I’m still getting the goods, it might be a visual bug, the NTGs are random, etc. No interest in how low the rate was. Sadly, I’ve given up on the 2 accounts where the NTGs don’t give properly and concentrate on the ipad account where NTGs still appear normally.

The 2 accounts with the NTG bug or problem weren’t always like that. Up until this year, they were normal and gave high rates of NTG as well. The bug started a few months ago.

I’ve heard similar stories. There are cases of much lower odds like you. I just believe the random generator has something wrong. Otherwise for 90% odds it won’t have so much low odds occurrence for so long.

 

[cclaerbo]

I finished the reasearch for marble in the uni. So far I have had 11//11 NTGs on Roman bases. I could be on lucky roll but I doubt it. I think that 90% is accurate then with boosts in university it changes to 100% on a five star victory. I’ll keep collecting data but think we will know soon

 

[Radzeer]

Hi guys,

was wondering lately upon my frustration of not getting the last desired ntg after the 3rd 5 star attack in a row (yeah Silk), what is the real percentage of getting the ntg.
So have analysed my current attack log and voila:
50 attacks in the log:
49-5 stars
1 - 4 stars
on 39 I got ntgs (including the 4 star)
on 11 I did not.

That is 78%
Will keep an eye on it for the next few days, when I will have a statistically relevant sample I will post it here.

What I have noticed that the probability of getting marble or porcelain as the 3rd ntg is way higher as for any other type. Is it just a coincidence, that Im maxed on these 2 ntgs since the weekend?

 

[Manifesto]

It has to be more than a co-incidence that an event needing diamonds is not giving diamonds. I've had numerous 5star attacks not give diamonds in the last week or so. Something's fishy.

 

[cclaerbo]

Once finishing the uni research on marble, I have received ntg for marble every time I get 5 stars. So even though drop rate before may not have ever been 90% overall it does guarantee now that I get marble with a 5 star attack. Have had another 12-15 battles which would be 23/23 for 5 star marble attacks. Everyone just do your research in uni for ntg available there it will help.

 

[cclaerbo]

Oh the extra ntg almost always seems to be one that your already full on lol. I generally am overflowing with silk it will be the only ntg full in my storehouse. When I’m raiding it’s the extra good probably 75% of the time though.

 

[rcatch]

15/19=79%, 385/482=80%

 

[Niblick]

I’ve got a second account on my iPhone, which I’ve almost given up on. The rate of TG’s is absolutely appalling. No where close to that of my main account on an old iPad. Ive also got the hanging gardens on that account, mainly because harvesting was giving such poor results, and it’s still rubbish. Regularly 2-4 cider off 8 trees and more often than not no metal from either mine. I can only assume that Nexon think we will buy more crowns to make up the difference. What I suspect they’ll see instead is a lot of disgruntled players walking away from the game

 

[Bootney Lee Fonsworth]

On my Enlightenment age account not only is there an inexplicable dearth of French players but my last six 5☆ attacks on the ones I have found have failed to yield a single cheese. Literally everything in my storehouse is full besides them. 20s across the board, yet I have 2 cheese. Random, right? There is too much RNG in this game. 5☆ attacks need to yield at least one of the item guaranteed and the RNG can be applied to multiples.

I'm not sure how annoying players is supposed to generate revenue. It clearly hasn't worked with the long build times/lack of workers or they wouldn't have switched to their pimping of premium troop cards model last year.

 

[Bootney Lee Fonsworth]

10% chance of failure. That failure chance being hit 6 consecutive times has a probability of 1 in 100,000. That's far worse than getting the best prizes from their gatcha chests but sure seems to happen far more often.

 

[rcatch]

18/20=90%, 403/502=80%

 

[Bedlam]

I think your math is wrong. If it is the stated '90%' for 5 star attacks then that resets on every attack. So if you didn't get it on one attack that does not improve your odds on the next attack. You cant say that it should be an average of 90% over your whole day of looting. There is still a 10% chance of you getting nothing. Now....if you do get NTGs then the Moctezuma research is a great bonus.