Your chances to craft an 11% artefact - Did they fall by half since Museum launch?

[Ulysses]

COMBINED STATISTICS FOR THE MUSEUM (updated)
(with thanks to Danron)
.

Era	Enlightenment	Global	Cold War	Original average at Museum launch*
Chance for 11% line	3.2% (4 lines)	3.2% (4 lines)	4.5% (9 lines)	6%
Chance for 6% line	32.8% (41 lines)	40.8% (51 lines)	36.0% (72 lines)	33%
Chance for 1% line	64% (80 lines)	56% (70 lines)	59.5% (119 lines)	61%
Chance for a dodo artefact (all lines 1%)	8.0% (2 artefacts)	8.0% (2 artefacts)	7.5% (3 artefacts)	N/A
Number of runs (so far)	N=125	N=125	N=200	N=985

.
So far the statistics for this have been fed in by me, Danron... and NoVelcroShoes' brilliant Museum Guide on youtube. Please post your own scores, so we can add more data, to see what the answer really is. Methodology here, if you can help → https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...tting-an-11-er

Bottom line, with the probabilities now, we have about 1-in-25 chance to score a single 11% line. Which means every time you craft five artefacts, you should score ONE 11% line somewhere. On average. If you score MORE THAN ONE 11% line, after crafting five artefacts, be happy. You're beating the odds. If you don't score at least one 11% line, after crafting five artefacts, you were unlucky. You should get one next time.

It's kinda hard to prove whether the current 3-4% chance of crafting an 11% line has fallen since the Museum was launched. All we can say with certainty is that the stats from Quali/NoVelcroShoes' analysis of 985 craftings, in the week after Museum launch, produced 11% lines with 6% probability.

Today's probability to craft an 11% appears to be about half of that... which would fit with what players feel they're experiencing. Quali/NoVelcroShoes ran his analysis 985 times, and we're only upto 450 now, we we'll keep adding more data, to see what happens.

For those of you who buy lottery tickets...
If you're holding out for a magical top three lines at 11%, then you're looking for 1-in-25 three times in a row... That's about 1-in-16,000 chance. The thing is, so long as there are more than 16,000 artefacts being crafted every day, then somebody, somewhere in the world, is getting one of those... Just not me, lol. To put 1-in-16,000 into perspective, it's about the same as your chance of being involved in a fatal car accident in US (if you live there).

If you've begun to wonder if Nexon, Dom or the Museum hates you, then we'd have to tell you that nope, you genuinely do have a nearly 1-in-10 chance of getting a dodo artefact (with all five lines at 1%). And if you're really, really 'lucky', you can craft two dodos in the same run of five artefacts (see my 7th run in the analysis link above). So, no, it's not just you...

On the happier side of life... 6%s are very easy to craft, coming in somewhere between 1-in-3 and 2-in-5.

So far, it definitely doesn't look like lower eras enjoy any advantage in Museum crafting. So there goes that conspiracy theory! Although it does look like, maybe, the chances of crafting an 11% may have fallen... Watch this space as we add more data... And please help us if you can...

PS.
There are two current forum posts with clever ideas on how to improve artefact crafting, possibly by allowing "recrafting" and "reshuffling", with the ability to "lock" the lines that you want to keep. If you like the idea, read the posts and talk to the TinSoldier :
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...ving-artifacts (by Centurion96 )
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...um-change-idea (by Seraph )
*Original Museum stats in the first week after launch are available from NoVelcroShoes' excellent youtube guide (with data supplied by Quali & his alliance)
→ http://bit.ly/NoVelcroMuseum

 

[FroggyKilla]

Nice work. Seems like we’re getting gimped to a degree.

 

[Ulysses]

Thanks Froggy, We can't say for sure that we're getting gimped on this one.

Our latest update (now with 950 artefact runs) suggests that we've got a 5% chance to score an 11% line, 35% to score a 6%, 60% to score a 1%.

Conservatively, I'd reckon that the difference between the 5% (for an 11% line) we're seeing now, and the 6% that Quali found back at Museum launch isn't massive...

Bottom line, it's pretty unusual, chances of dying in a car crash unusual, to score three 11%s on the same artefact. But knowing that, can help smart players make better decisions on what to keep.

And it also gives all of us an incentive to ask (demand, beg, plead with) Nexon to add some of the clever options to let players invest time/resources/crowns in improving the artefacts that we have...

 

[Ulysses]

I've copied the latest update over from the detailed analysis post here...

Thanks for your help guys. Lots more data to add with this latest update.
Thanks heaps to Danron (who's submitted more than half the data), also to Shukra and BeerMan.

YOUR CHANCES AT THE MUSEUM
.

Era	EA	Danron	GA	Danron	AA	Shukra	CWA	Ulyssees	Average
	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%
Chance for 11% line	9	3.6%	12	4.8%	13	6.5%	15	5.0%	49	4.9%
Chance for 6% line	80	32.0%	90	36.0%	69	34.5%	113	37.7%	352	35.2%
Chance for 1% line	161	64.4%	148	59.2%	118	59.0%	172	57.3%	599	59.9%
Chance for a dodo artefact (all 5 lines 1%)	4	8%	4	8%	3	7.5%	3	5.0%	14	7.0%
Number of runs (so far)	250		250		200		300		N=1,000

.

We've now got 1,000 crafting runs across four eras (EA=Englightenment Age, GA=Global Age, AA=Atomic Age, CWA=Cold War Age). Unsurprisingly, given it's the result of a random number generator (RNG), there's a lot of results scattering between the eras. Somewhere in the code for the Dom app, a human being (aka the awesome dev team) has entered the values that guide the RNG when it crafts 11%, 6% and 1%.

Looking at our averages, our results predict the Museum gives 4.9% chance for an 11% line, 35.2% chance for a 6% line, 59.9% chance for a 1% line. So my best guess is that the RNG code is the same across all eras, and is probably 5.0% for an 11%, 35% for a 6%, 60% for a 1%...
.
5% chance for an 11% line works out at 1-in-20, so you should be able to craft at least one 11% line every time you craft five artefacts. If you craft more than one 11% line, you're beating the odds. Be happy! If you didn't craft any 11%s with five artefacts, you were just unlucky. You should get one next time.

Your chances of scoring a magical 11% on all three of the top three lines, is 5% x 5% x 5%, which you should be able to do every 1-in-8,000 craftings... To mentally put that in context, your chances of dying in any particular year are 1-in-200 if you smoke ten a day, 1-in-5,000 from influenza, 1-in-8,000 from a car accident in Europe, and 1-in-20,000 from an asteroid strike... 1-in-8,000 isn't easy, but it is happening to somebody, somewhere.
.
Some suggestions to improve Museum crafting: There are two forum posts with clever ideas to improve artefact crafting, possibly by allowing "recrafting" and "reshuffling", with the ability to "lock" the lines that you want to keep. If you like the idea, read the posts and talk to the TinSoldier :
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...ving-artifacts (by Centurion96 )
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...um-change-idea (by Seraph )

 

[Motaz Tarek]

sorry to say that, but the concept of focusing on the probability of each % is a waste of time
there is another factor which is (what is the 11% bonus going to give u) and mostly i get it in rubbish bonuses (e.g bomber damage)
yea i know it's not your problem that we don't use bombers cuz they r extremely weak but, puting these 2 factors side by side (rarity of 11% and rarity of useful bonuses) u will end up with almost 100% chance of being dissatisfied with the artifacts u craft

i have played many games with implementations holding the same concept of museum artifact
and usually they offer u to lock 1-2 of the bonuses u like out of the 5 bonuses and reroll the other 3 bonuses u don't like so u end up with more % of satisfaction with each artifact

normally we wouldn't need that if nexon didn't decide to bloat artifacts with bonuses to extremely useless troops like gurellas, bombers, mortar troops or useless economic aspects like resources from gold mines and trees (where it is more logical to increase cider and metal chance)

but judging from the current situation, u end up crafting to destroy for blue prints, and set there to wait for an event like the current one to give u a decent artifact or buy them during overpriced sales for real money carrying pay2win to multiplayer and who knows, maybe to wars too in the future if they decide to activate museum in wars to worsen the current pay2win situation

 

[Ulysses]

Shukran for your feedback Motaz...

sorry to say that, but the concept of focusing on the probability of each % is a waste of time
there is another factor which is (what is the 11% bonus going to give u) and mostly i get it in rubbish bonuses (e.g bomber damage)
yea i know it's not your problem that we don't use bombers cuz they r extremely weak but, puting these 2 factors side by side (rarity of 11% and rarity of useful bonuses) u will end up with almost 100% chance of being dissatisfied with the artifacts u craft

I had limited time so I only wanted to address two questions that players kept posting: (i) there was a claim that it was easier for lower eras to craft better artefacts (the stats don't support that), and (ii) there was a belief that it had become harder to craft better quality artefacts since the Museum was launched (per the stats, I'd say that's inconclusive).

Check out NoVelcroShoes' Museum Guide on youtube → http://bit.ly/NoVelcroMuseum, from about 17 mins 20 secs. He shows that there's more or less an equal chance to get any particular factor buffed. And, as you say, there are a lot of factors, some of which are useful, some not so much. It all depends on each players' style of attack/defense.

i have played many games with implementations holding the same concept of museum artifact
and usually they offer u to lock 1-2 of the bonuses u like out of the 5 bonuses and reroll the other 3 bonuses u don't like so u end up with more % of satisfaction with each artifact
normally we wouldn't need that if nexon didn't decide to bloat artifacts with bonuses to extremely useless troops like gurellas, bombers, mortar troops or useless economic aspects like resources from gold mines and trees (where it is more logical to increase cider and metal chance)

I agree, this is the obvious thing to fix. There are already two good forum threads in the Ideas section, which work up this idea. Please post there, and let's persuade Nexon to explore this one. Otherwise the Museum is just a slot machine, that leads directly to pay-to-win.
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...ving-artifacts (by Centurion96 )
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...um-change-idea (by Seraph )

but judging from the current situation, u end up crafting to destroy for blue prints, and set there to wait for an event like the current one to give u a decent artifact or buy them during overpriced sales for real money carrying pay2win to multiplayer and who knows, maybe to wars too in the future if they decide to activate museum in wars to worsen the current pay2win situation

Yup, right now I end up trashing 9/10 or more of the artefacts that I craft. But you gotta get the blueprints from somewhere, right? And yeah, Nexon is obviously milking the Museum through monthly (or so) 'Museum Madness' offers, to buy Legendary artefacts. But, to be fair to TinSoldier and the dev team, they just offered a decent Legendary that can be earned simply by completing this week's challenge, Admiral Yi's helmet. That's a 6%-6%-6%-11%-11% artefact. To roll that independently is a 1-in-9,000 chance. And that's without assuming you'd actually get the factors that you want.

So, having run the stats, I'd say keep crafting and trashing artefacts. We all need the blueprints. Keep your expectations low. Maybe keep more artefacts than you have been. And contribute to the Museum/artefact dev suggestions above, to persuade Nexon to make this feature better...

 

[Ulysses]

No Title

there is another factor which is (what is the 11% bonus going to give u) and mostly i get it in rubbish bonuses (e.g bomber damage)
yea i know it's not your problem that we don't use bombers cuz they r extremely weak but, puting these 2 factors side by side (rarity of 11% and rarity of useful bonuses) u will end up with almost 100% chance of being dissatisfied with the artifacts u craft

Forgive me friend, but another thing I should advise, is keep an open mind, experiment, don't be too quick to diss troops that maybe you stopped using awhile ago... Since I made Cold War, I decided to mess around with all the different troop styles again... to see if I was missing any clever tactics...

Missed tactic #1. Bombers

Even a Mk4 Strategic Bomber can deliver 35,500 dps with 6,200 hp, if you've done the right research and carry an air superiority blessing (screenshot 1 below).

That's not so shabby. Send in a fighter to clear the SAMs and a bomber like that will easily score you >10,000 oil from a fully loaded CWA opponent (screenshot 2 below). I'm guessing you probably hit tougher bases than I do, but from the screenshot you'll see the target was CWA with lvl 16 walls, lvl 5 air defenses, etc.

So, as you might imagine, I kinda like Museum buffs for bombers. In fact, gimme more!! (please)

PS. Except MRLs. Multiple Rocket Launchers suck... They cost 600 oil each, to only fire the same attack dps as a regular rifleman. And their displayed stats are wrong... GM's know about it and have promised to get MRLs on the fix it list for the next update... More on that here → https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...cription-wrong ... But sure, other than MRLs, I'd always recommend keeping an open mind, lol

 

[FroggyKilla]

Bonus placement is subjective. Just because you don’t want Bomber Damage doesn’t mean everyone else doesn’t want Bomber Damage.

 

[Motaz Tarek]

i attack lvl 220-250 bases depending on how upgraded their defenses are,
i know there are many ways to get loot, but the last way to be my resort is using a bomber, that's too much time cost to rebuild when u can simply use wall miners + raiders or helicopters and raiders, a strategy that works for looting many bases

my main problem is getting ntgs, not only some critical ntgs are rare as tea and scrolls because not too many play chinese and greek, but also i have to 5* them in the presence of silo
that's why am using more practical army combos in multiplayer to 5* my opponents, ones like combos used in wars actually, ones that include only serious troops of benefit, while trying to maintain my losses minimal to not wait an hour between each attack

that's why bombers are not a viable option for me, gurella too
I can't complain if others see them beneficial but they should at least give us the chance to reroll what we don't like to achieve maximum benefit of this feature
and it's too frustrating when u destroy artifacts u collected for a week and cant get enough blue prints for extra 1% of 1 out of 5 stats, blue prints requirement is nuts and doesn't encourage me at all to collect fragments for crafting since i know it's nearly impossible to collect enough blueprints at high lvl perk upgrades

 

[Motaz Tarek]

well being used by 1% of players doesn't make it useful at the end of the day
plus how can bonus food from trees or hunting animals be subjective? do u think someone believes such a bonus worthy of implementing in artifacts and ur supposed to upgrade it later with tremendous amount of blue prints that u spend a year to collect them to get a single perk to lvl 10?
would i choose to spend them in that bonus?

 

[Ulysses]

That's fair Motaz, I use the engineer/raider tactic to steal easy low hanging fruit. It's highly effective against most bases... About 1-in-10 attacks, I'll also send in a bomber if it's gonna get net me 10-20k oil. That easily pays back the 1k cost of the bomber. And as Frenchie, they don't take long to rebuild...

I totally agree with you that as the Museum beds in, Nexon are gonna have to evolve it, so that the Museum genuinely adds to play rather than being the obvious slot machine that it is right now. They're only gonna be able to milk this so far, as a diversion to pay-to-win, before sensible folks stop taking out their credit cards...

Check out these two threads on improving artefact crafting. As you say, "re-rolling", "re-crafting" and "re-shuffling", would make the Museum soooooo much cooler
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...ving-artifacts (by Centurion96 )
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...um-change-idea (by Seraph )

 

[yemen]

Unless you are a very long time player of this game, long enough to have done all important and many unimportant armory upgrades, you should probably continue to ignore bombers, transports, guerrillas, machine guns, mortars, etc. Don't waste time or resources on them until everything useful is done, including fairly high level generals. What bothers me is that some of our lower level players get confused about whether those are worthwhile, because they see buffs to them in the museum that seem to be more common than useful buffs (ranged siege, fighters, etc).

Right now, the odds of generating a "good" weapon artifact (useful categories, decent numbers) are so low that they are basically all junk not worth upgrading past level 1. All the active ones I have across three accounts are level 1 or level 2 (generated that way), that have a decent category with a decent number in the first slot, but nothing worthwhile otherwise. I have yet to see a single weapon that has at least 3 good categories with good numbers that would be worth investing scarce supplies in. Armor falls in the same category.

Jewelry, with fewer possible categories, I have had somewhat better selection with and have a few that have been upgraded at some level. Pots I don't think any of the categories can be worth upgrading except oil production. So I don't expect to ever get anything past level 2 for those.

That is a pretty dismal picture for the museum. I have gotten bored generating and destroying, so just letting the fragments pile up now. Maybe I'll go through a bunch the next time there are bonus blueprints for selling them or something.

 

[FroggyKilla]

Still 1% shy of everyone. And it’s still an 11% bonus, so we can’t really mark those out. Again, everything you just said to me now is subjective.

(Don’t get me wrong, I really wouldn’t invest in any bonus if it’s at 1%).

 

[Motaz Tarek]

yea but if they decide to make 50% of the bonuses ones that are used by 1% of poplulation that's unfair
coupled with the other factor (how much % is that bonus) most of the players end with bad artifacts

look at the artifacts sold for real cash for instance, u won't find bomber dmg or bomber hp in them, developpers have statistics for all units used and they make sure they put the most used units in premium artifacts cuz they want the ones who pay be 100% satisfied with what they get
unlike the ones u get for free from crafting u end up 100% dissatisfied or 10-15% max satisfaction, how tragic can it be?

 

[Imaera]

Chanses are! I just crafted this one today and i had similar ones before. Beautiful stats, but i had to sell it cause they were all in wrong categories.

 

[Ulysses]

Omg Imaera... +6% bomber hp, +11% fighter hp... I'd kill for that (well, maybe maim and leave near a hospital, lol)!!

 

[Imaera]

) I only use fighters and ranged siege. Isn't worth keeping for only those two.

 

[Quali]

No Title

This was the data I did first time around - I stopped at around 1200. I currently have 25,000 fragments so will go on a crafting spree soonish.

 

[Ulysses]

Thanks for the share, Quali!

I've copied out our final results from the other forum stream below...
Thanks to Danron (who's submitted half the data), also to Wrathchild, Shukra & BeerMan.

We made 1,225 runs with the following findings:
1. I'm not convinced that the chance to get an 11% has changed vs your data
2. There's no significant difference between eras
3. More or less, your chances are 5% to get an 11% line, 35% to get a 6% line, 60% to get a 1% line; ie. you should get at least one 11% line every one-in-20 lines

I'm copying your strategy to save up fragments (although I've got nowhere hear 25,000 yet) and will re-run the analysis in a couple of months, to see if anything changes...

Great news tho! TinSoldier has asked the dev team to look at incorporating some kind of 're-roll'/'re-shuffle' function into the Museum. Details on the link below. That would make a huge difference to crafting. So I guess, watch this space...

Ully


YOUR CHANCES AT THE MUSEUM
.

Era	EA	Danron	GA	Danron	AA	Shukra & Wrathchild	CWA	Ulysses	Average
	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%
Chance for 11% line	9	3.6%	12	4.8%	23	5.8%	16	4.9%	55	4.9%
Chance for 6% line	80	32.0%	90	36.0%	138	34.5%	123	37.8%	399	35.2%
Chance for 1% line	161	64.4%	148	59.2%	239	59.8%	186	57.2%	671	59.9%
Chance for a dodo artefact (all 5 lines 1%)	4	8%	4	8%	5	6.3%	4	6.2%	16	6.9%
Number of runs (so far)	250		250		400		325		N=1,225

.
We've now got 1,225 crafting runs across four eras (EA=Englightenment Age, GA=Global Age, AA=Atomic Age, CWA=Cold War Age). Unsurprisingly, given it's the result of a random number generator (RNG), there's a lot of results scattering between the eras. Somewhere in the code for the Dom app, a human being (aka the awesome dev team) has entered the values that guide the RNG when it crafts 11%, 6% and 1%.

Looking at our averages, our results predict the Museum gives 4.9% chance for an 11% line, 35.2% chance for a 6% line, 59.9% chance for a 1% line. So my best guess is that the RNG code is the same across all eras, and is probably 5.0% for an 11%, 35% for a 6%, 60% for a 1%.
.
5% chance for an 11% line works out at 1-in-20, so you should be able to craft at least one 11% line every time you craft five artefacts. If you craft more than one 11% line, you're beating the odds. Be happy! If you didn't craft any 11%s with five artefacts, you were just unlucky. You should get one next time.

Your chances of scoring a magical 11% on all three of the top three lines, is 5% x 5% x 5%, which you should be able to do every 1-in-8,000 craftings... To mentally put that in context, your chances of dying in any particular year are 1-in-200 if you smoke ten a day, 1-in-5,000 from influenza, 1-in-8,000 from a car accident in Europe, and 1-in-20,000 from an asteroid strike... 1-in-8,000 isn't easy, but it is happening to somebody, somewhere.
.
Some suggestions to improve Museum crafting: There are twoforum posts with clever ideas to improve artefact crafting, possibly by allowing "recrafting" and "reshuffling", with the ability to "lock" the lines that you want to keep. If you like the idea, read the posts and talk to the TinSoldier:
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...ving-artifacts(by Centurion96)
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...um-change-idea(by Seraph)

 

[forgetthis]

The only problem with this analysis is that it assumes that Nexon is using a consistent odds percentage for every line. There is no reason to assume that to be true. I would argue that it's likely that once Nexon saw how people reacted to the museum that they cut down the odds on first-line 11% scores. This matches my experience to a T - after seeing multiple first-line 11% early after the museum debut, I haven't seen a first-line 11% in probably 200 artifact runs. The above math suggests a first-line 11% should happen once every 100 artifacts.

The museum is ultimately a slot machine, designed to make it feel like players are SO CLOSE to getting a good artifact when they're really not.. Even when non-paying players get good artifacts, they don't want to waste scarce supplies on upgrading, so their benefits are capped. Only the people throwing money at the game get the better artifacts (through sales) or enough supplies to risk upgrading anything besides the best artifacts, so only the paying players see significant advantages. The rest of the players keep pulling the slot machine lever and don't really get much - and when they do, those percentages end up breaking even with opposing players' artifacts.

People assume Nexon made mistakes with some their choices on museum design, but Nexon is using psychology to increase user engagement without needing to give non-paying players much, while giving themselves another revenue stream for the whales. It's worth grinding to try to win the lottery, because it will happen for a handful of lucky folks, but don't expect much. Do expect more sales from Nexon to take advantage of the frustration deliberately generated by their museum design.