COMBINED STATISTICS FOR THE MUSEUM (updated)
(with thanks to Danron)
.
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So far the statistics for this have been fed in by me, Danron... and NoVelcroShoes' brilliant Museum Guide on youtube. Please post your own scores, so we can add more data, to see what the answer really is. Methodology here, if you can help → https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...tting-an-11-er
Bottom line, with the probabilities now, we have about 1-in-25 chance to score a single 11% line. Which means every time you craft five artefacts, you should score ONE 11% line somewhere. On average. If you score MORE THAN ONE 11% line, after crafting five artefacts, be happy. You're beating the odds. If you don't score at least one 11% line, after crafting five artefacts, you were unlucky. You should get one next time.
It's kinda hard to prove whether the current 3-4% chance of crafting an 11% line has fallen since the Museum was launched. All we can say with certainty is that the stats from Quali/NoVelcroShoes' analysis of 985 craftings, in the week after Museum launch, produced 11% lines with 6% probability.
Today's probability to craft an 11% appears to be about half of that... which would fit with what players feel they're experiencing. Quali/NoVelcroShoes ran his analysis 985 times, and we're only upto 450 now, we we'll keep adding more data, to see what happens.
For those of you who buy lottery tickets...
If you're holding out for a magical top three lines at 11%, then you're looking for 1-in-25 three times in a row... That's about 1-in-16,000 chance. The thing is, so long as there are more than 16,000 artefacts being crafted every day, then somebody, somewhere in the world, is getting one of those... Just not me, lol. To put 1-in-16,000 into perspective, it's about the same as your chance of being involved in a fatal car accident in US (if you live there).
If you've begun to wonder if Nexon, Dom or the Museum hates you, then we'd have to tell you that nope, you genuinely do have a nearly 1-in-10 chance of getting a dodo artefact (with all five lines at 1%). And if you're really, really 'lucky', you can craft two dodos in the same run of five artefacts (see my 7th run in the analysis link above). So, no, it's not just you...
On the happier side of life... 6%s are very easy to craft, coming in somewhere between 1-in-3 and 2-in-5.
So far, it definitely doesn't look like lower eras enjoy any advantage in Museum crafting. So there goes that conspiracy theory! Although it does look like, maybe, the chances of crafting an 11% may have fallen... Watch this space as we add more data... And please help us if you can...
PS.
There are two current forum posts with clever ideas on how to improve artefact crafting, possibly by allowing "recrafting" and "reshuffling", with the ability to "lock" the lines that you want to keep. If you like the idea, read the posts and talk to the TinSoldier :
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...ving-artifacts (by Centurion96 )
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...um-change-idea (by Seraph )
*Original Museum stats in the first week after launch are available from NoVelcroShoes' excellent youtube guide (with data supplied by Quali & his alliance)
→ http://bit.ly/NoVelcroMuseum
(with thanks to Danron)
.
Era | Enlightenment | Global | Cold War | Original average at Museum launch* |
Chance for 11% line | 3.2% (4 lines) | 3.2% (4 lines) | 4.5% (9 lines) | 6% |
Chance for 6% line | 32.8% (41 lines) | 40.8% (51 lines) | 36.0% (72 lines) | 33% |
Chance for 1% line | 64% (80 lines) | 56% (70 lines) | 59.5% (119 lines) | 61% |
Chance for a dodo artefact (all lines 1%) | 8.0% (2 artefacts) | 8.0% (2 artefacts) | 7.5% (3 artefacts) | N/A |
Number of runs (so far) | N=125 | N=125 | N=200 | N=985 |
So far the statistics for this have been fed in by me, Danron... and NoVelcroShoes' brilliant Museum Guide on youtube. Please post your own scores, so we can add more data, to see what the answer really is. Methodology here, if you can help → https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...tting-an-11-er
Bottom line, with the probabilities now, we have about 1-in-25 chance to score a single 11% line. Which means every time you craft five artefacts, you should score ONE 11% line somewhere. On average. If you score MORE THAN ONE 11% line, after crafting five artefacts, be happy. You're beating the odds. If you don't score at least one 11% line, after crafting five artefacts, you were unlucky. You should get one next time.
It's kinda hard to prove whether the current 3-4% chance of crafting an 11% line has fallen since the Museum was launched. All we can say with certainty is that the stats from Quali/NoVelcroShoes' analysis of 985 craftings, in the week after Museum launch, produced 11% lines with 6% probability.
Today's probability to craft an 11% appears to be about half of that... which would fit with what players feel they're experiencing. Quali/NoVelcroShoes ran his analysis 985 times, and we're only upto 450 now, we we'll keep adding more data, to see what happens.
For those of you who buy lottery tickets...
If you're holding out for a magical top three lines at 11%, then you're looking for 1-in-25 three times in a row... That's about 1-in-16,000 chance. The thing is, so long as there are more than 16,000 artefacts being crafted every day, then somebody, somewhere in the world, is getting one of those... Just not me, lol. To put 1-in-16,000 into perspective, it's about the same as your chance of being involved in a fatal car accident in US (if you live there).
If you've begun to wonder if Nexon, Dom or the Museum hates you, then we'd have to tell you that nope, you genuinely do have a nearly 1-in-10 chance of getting a dodo artefact (with all five lines at 1%). And if you're really, really 'lucky', you can craft two dodos in the same run of five artefacts (see my 7th run in the analysis link above). So, no, it's not just you...
On the happier side of life... 6%s are very easy to craft, coming in somewhere between 1-in-3 and 2-in-5.
So far, it definitely doesn't look like lower eras enjoy any advantage in Museum crafting. So there goes that conspiracy theory! Although it does look like, maybe, the chances of crafting an 11% may have fallen... Watch this space as we add more data... And please help us if you can...
PS.
There are two current forum posts with clever ideas on how to improve artefact crafting, possibly by allowing "recrafting" and "reshuffling", with the ability to "lock" the lines that you want to keep. If you like the idea, read the posts and talk to the TinSoldier :
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...ving-artifacts (by Centurion96 )
→ https://forum.nexonm.com/forum/nexon...um-change-idea (by Seraph )
*Original Museum stats in the first week after launch are available from NoVelcroShoes' excellent youtube guide (with data supplied by Quali & his alliance)
→ http://bit.ly/NoVelcroMuseum
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